Friday, July 30, 2010

Lay up or Go For It…Who Decides That Question?

- Audio version at the end of this post –

That answer is simple.  Only the player makes the decision to lay up or let it rip and go for the green on those water fronted par 5’s that are just egging you on to “man up,” be macho, to go for it.  “Man up” because we are talking about hitting long irons to hybrids and fairways woods.  We are not talking about hitting a smooth 5 iron or less to the middle of the green.

The layups that are causing controversy are ones to par 5’s when players were in the hunt, many times one shot back of the lead and have a chance to win.  And they all had shots well over 200 yards to water fronted greens. In the case of Ricky Fowler, who is the main subject of this article, his green was virtually an island.

I am writing this because I am tired of golf sports writers and commentators, and even golf professionals, being back seat drivers and dogging these professionals who choose to lay up.  My first question to all of them is, how many times have you been in that situation and thus have experience to judge another’s decision?  I have been there many times in professional tournaments, including a PGA Tour event and a US Senior Open, so I can speak from experience.  I have laid up and gone for it.  But each time the circumstances were different.

Ricky Fowler is a PGA Tour rookie and his #1 priority was securing his 2011 Tour card as well as being high on the re-shuffle of 2010 rookies that was happening after the Phoenix Open.  I goggled Rickie and the Phoenix open and found some articles with comments about Ricky and some quotes from him that are copied below.

I also found one that was written by PGA Professional, Greg Enholm titled ,“Winners Play to Win” and he brings up some super points about going for the green.  He introduced two other recent lay ups by Tim Clark and Michael Sim that not making birdie cost them to loose by a shot, as did Ricky.
I also found an article about the “Mack Daddy” layup pounding that a PGA Tour player has ever received and is still mentioned today, and was in conjunction with Rickie’s decision last week.  That infamous lay up was done by Chip Beck at the 15th hole in the 1993 Masters.  I also copied the article I found that describes the situation and Beck’s thought process.

Now, let’s look at some of those comments and quotes I found in articles about Rickie.

“Fowler virtually assured himself of keeping his Tour card for next season and zoomed to the top of the rookie rankings, which are re-shuffled after the Phoenix event.  He also climbed to 13th in FedEx Cup playoff points and needs to reach the top 10 to qualify for the World Golf Championships – CA Championship in two weeks.”

“I haven’t really thought about all the stuff,” Fowler said of the perks that come with his finish. “I think it basically gives me my card back, which was one of my goals going into the year, and I took care of that pretty quick, which is kind of a relief.
“I get to just go play golf now. It moves me up in the rankings with the reshuffle, so a lot of good things are happening this week.”

The reshuffle is important because it establishes a pecking order among rookies for exemptions into tournaments. That Fowler is on top comes as no surprise after a brilliant amateur career.

A Lesson Learned: Winners play to win
By Greg Enholm, PGA Professional

“So answer this one golf fans, what do Tim Clark (2010 Bob Hope), Michael Sim (2010 Farmers Insurance Classic), and Rickie Fowler (2010 Phoenix Open) now all have in common? They have all trailed the lead by one shot on the back nine of the final round, and they all laid up on reachable par fives coming down the stretch. Oh, and they also all lost by one. This is becoming a course management trend which defies golf logic in my opinion. Players are forgetting why they are in the last group and what got them there, making birdies and eagles! When you are trailing by one on a reachable par five there is no decision to make. It is a mandatory go!

“Let’s look at this past week. On hole no. 15, with water twenty yards short of the green, Rickie Fowler laid up from 230 yards out. Fowler can bomb it as a young twenty-one year old, this was very reachable for him. To compound matters, he hit to an in-between yardage, missed the green with his third shot and needed to get up and in for just a par. He never gave himself a chance at birdie!

“Consider the other scenario. Say he hits his second shot in the water. He could drop to a yardage of his choice and still get up and down for par. This also gives him a chance for the much better flip side, one where he flags a three iron, makes eagle and goes on to win the tournament. Think about the number-one player in the world. What would he have done? In fact, think of any of the top twenty golfers in the world. They all would have gone for it. Why? Because they all know how to win tournamnets, to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves, and this was one of those opportunities.

“Golf is all about second guessing, second chances and learning from your mistakes. There is no doubt Ricky Fowler will be multiple PGA Tour winner, we are just going to have to see what he has learned from his past experiences.”

My feelings about second guessing and, as stated in the first sentence “it proved to be quite costly,” I ask, DID it prove costly?  Rickie finished second, making a lot of money, secured his card for next year and moved to #1 in the reshuffle.  What all these naysayers seem to forget and only dwell on is if he went for it and had positive results.  This article had him even if hitting into the water on his second shot getting it up and down for par.  What about not getting it up and down for par or even making bogey and worse.  Winning is important, but at what risk?

Chip Beck, like Rickie, did some good serious thinking,  evaluated  his situation, and made a decision he can live with.  Here are Beck’s circumstances and his thoughts and conclusions.

No regrets: a decade later, Chip Beck stands by his lay up
Golf Digest, April, 2003 by Ron Kaspriske

All right, let’s get right to it. Chip Beck had 236 yards to carry the pond on 15 on Sunday. There was a slight breeze in his face, a gallery of millions, and he needed to make up three shots to catch Bernhard Langer and win the ‘93 Masters.

What did he do?

“The same thing I’d do today,” Beck says from his home in Lake Forest, Ill. “I took out my 5-iron and laid up.”

Although it has been 10 years since his runner-up finish at the Masters, Beck still gets asked about that decision frequently. And, typical of his friendly demeanor, Beck doesn’t bite the head off the person who is asking: “Why on earth didn’t you go for the green in two?”

“I felt that if I could wedge on and birdie that hole, I could still win,” he says. “I didn’t want to throw away my chances to win, and that shot would have been stupid.” Unfortunately for Beck, his wedge shot from 75 yards missed the green and he made par. Langer cruised to a four-shot victory.

Nevertheless, Beck says the ‘93 Masters is a career highlight. But not his last. The man who once shot 59 in the Las Vegas Invitational and won four PGA Tour events is still playing. The 46-year-old is now on the Nationwide Tour and thinks his game is improving. “I’m looking forward to winning again,” he says.

COPYRIGHT 2003 Golf Digest Companies
COPYRIGHT 2008 Gale, Cengage Learning

We can beat this should they have gone for it or not forever.  It is easy to stand outside of the ropes or in the press tent or clubhouse watching it on TV and make judgments.  It is another thing to be the player inside of the ropes, seeing the lie of the ball and the fairway, the wind and feeling his stomach wrenching and muscles tightening and what is going on in his mind.  And remember in Rickie Fowler’s and Chip Beck’s cases, they still had birdie holes left to play, so part of their strategy was not to sink (pun intended) their round on a high probability golf shot that could drown (pun intended) their chance of winning in one shot as well as jeopardize finishing second or third where the money they would lose would be significant.

These players first and foremost are out there on the PGA Tour playing and making career decisions.  If we write articles and or make comments on TV let’s maybe question their decision to lay up, but let us never disparage and ridicule or call them out on it.  Remember second is better than third and third is better than fourth.  And when they have multiple wins and never have to worry about money earned to keep their card, than maybe, like Tiger and Phil, they may go for more par 5, high margin of error water fronted greens.  Until then, laying up and finishing second is pretty good, commendable and profitable and deserves a well done for a good tournament finish.

The Surge!

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  • sts
    You post great posts. Bookmarked !
  • John Campbell
    Its easy to say the # 1 player in the World would of went for it. If Ricky or anyone else on the tour had been paid $ 50 million before even teeing it up professional!! Im sure they would have no worries about going for it either. But the fact of the matter is, its extremely hard to make the PGA Tour! And yet even harder to stay there. The young man is trying to become a regular, not a has been! Why jeopardize your young career on one shot??? When birdie still looks good by playing smart! Congratulations Ricky Fowler on being mentally tough! You'll have enough time later in your career to be "Tin Cup"!!!!!!

    p.s. As far as the other two guys(Villegas & Calc) who went for it, they had nothing to lose and are doing just fine financial!!!
  • PGA
    Can anybody say Zach Johnson? He laid up on every par 5 and won the Masters. What an idiot. Rickie's fault was in not hitting a better wedge shot.
  • Mike M
    Correction, probably about $800,000. Difference between 1st and 3, or 4.
  • Mike M
    I wonder if some of the 'amateur' writers would 'go for it' with $100,000+ on the line with one shot.

    $5.00 for a skin...sure, why not, it's not our livelyhood and career.
  • Stan
    Surge, David Toms layed up on the 18th and won the PGA Championship.

    That was a great decision.

    Made him a golf hero.

    Stan
  • Dan Dosemagen
    Mama always said that there's a fine line between a lot of guts and no brains. If Mickelson just hits a 2 iron off the 18th tee in the U.S. Open...............
  • kenny milliken
    zac jonston won the masters and didnt go for a par5 in 2 all week.....coz he has a killer short game.....short game ...short game.
  • Rory Clipsham
    Surge, Lay up or Go for it? if you go back to 2007 Masters, Zach won his GREEN JACKET laying up, 11 under on par 5s and he never went for the greeen in two, he knew "how to play them." great work keep the great work.
  • Dom Rovito
    Hey Surge, You don't understand, you're opinion was well thought out, reasonable and actually took all things into consideration! The media for the most part doesn't work that way, in sports or any other arena. (think politics here) They all want to rant and rave , the only guys I've ever heard comment about players possibly doing this (worrying about keeping their card, or making a paycheck) are
    charlie Reimer and Chamblee, they know , they lived it! It would have been very exciting if Ricky did go for it, but the kid has to look out for #1, just like in real life. I didn't realize all the things he had to consider, as I'm sure was the case for 90% of us watching, reading your article really was an eduction. I know Dan Marino probably thought he'd get to many more Super Bowls after he lost his first one, so you go for it when the opportunity arises. We don't know what the future holds for young Ricky, but he has a plan and a boat load of talent, and at the moment it looks like he's on his way to a great career.
  • Bill McCabe
    Right on Surge!

    An old Star Trek TV episode featured a great quote. A Klingon (enemy) Commander commenting on Captain Kirk's battle-tactic options:

    "...there's a big difference between COURAGE and FOOLHARDINESS..."

    Ricky Fowler undoubtedly has the courage...he's just not a fool.

    Who are we to question his tactics decisions, anyway?

    I'm sure many of you would have gone for it.....and made "snowman", too..
  • John Alan
    I'm With Surge... Ricky Secured His 2011 Future, "Now If He Wants" to take some not so high % shots, he can do that and not put his 2011 CARD IN JEP...WE must remember 1 thing, as a Touring Professional, we have played our shots with our strengths and weaknesses considered... when the NAYSAYERS are all finished stating "With Their Hands On Their Hips" Well I WOULD OF... That's Why There's Professional Players and Professional Reporters... RICKY MY FRIEND DID EXACTLY RIGHT !!! PERIOD, Now Watch Him go, He's starting to get his footing an adjustment period 21 yrs old and is a Great Roll Model for Jr. Golf. "The Gambler Quote Don Made is So Good !!! Remember This; "PLAY YOUR OWN GAME" ( It's About course Management, >amateurs give away 3-5 Strokes every round IN THE MITT, UP THE TREE...
  • nick di paolo
    I totally agree with your comments Surge. If Phil Michelson played conservative {which laying up is } he would have a US Open trophy on his mantelpiece!
  • Ted
    Considering the huge pressure he was under, I am not surprised he chose to lay up. It's great to win a tournament by playing a great risk and reward shot but he would have felt awfully silly had he scored a double bogey by being so brave. Well done Ricky. You did what was right for you. I have no doubt that you will win at some stage, probably quite soon. You can now relax and play for the rest of the season with no worries about 2011. Keep up the good work.
  • Amos Terrell
    to Dennis:

    Of course tehy would -- but TIger and Phil aer SECURE -- with both their TOUR CARDS and their riches. Fowler is NOT!

    Therefore Fowler made the correct play for his GOLFING FUTURE and his playing privileges.

    As to commentators and analysists -- I wonder why they are in the booth and not on the course? Perhaps they "went for it" one time too many ?

    Keep hitting them STRAIGHT and LONG

    Amos
  • Michael Black
    Many years ago, I was playing a friendly round with a couple of friends. I had been playing quite well for a 12 h/capper, and had just ripped a decent 260 yard drive on a dog-leg left par five hole. I could see the green, the pin was dead centre, and I could also see the pond which covered the last 40 yards of my next shot (240 yards).

    Yes, I thought, I should "go for it"!

    Well, 3 wood in hand, I hit the ball firmly and straight; the ball just about made it over the pond, but hit the embankment and sauntered its merry way down, into the wet stuff. Oh how I wish I had taken a 5 iron. I will almost always play the percentage shot these days, regardless of what is at stake.
  • Louis
    Quite agree Surge, but as was pointed out in an earlier blog, American golf coverage & commentators are pretty hopeless anyway, so what do you expect!
  • Dennis
    Tiger and Phi would have gone for it.
  • Vic Henry
    I agree with you Surge. Frankly, I personally am getting more than just a little tired of the so-called expert sports commentators, female as well as male, who feel they know it all. I just enjoy watching these professional play their own game, and even making their own mistakes along the way. I believe that the quality playing of even the lowest rank professional is so far above my abilty to play this game and always will be, that I don't have the time or the talent to match. However just to watch them hit spectacular shots gives me the incentive to keep trying. Further more, I do not believe the world of golf needs any one particular golfer. It is a great game and no one, no matter how good, how famous, or how rich they are, are a necessity to this great game. These type of players, in my estimation only feed the financial greed of sponsors, networks and yes, even other golfers.
  • Kerry
    Tim Rosefort on Golf Channel checked Fowler's statistics for the week. I forget the exact specifics, but they go something like: (1) Going for the green would have required a 4 iron or more; (2) While Fowler was ranked highly in accuracy that week with a 5 iron or shorter, his ranking I believe was outside the top 100 with a 4 iron or longer; (3) his average proximity with a 4 iron was a miserable 60 ft. from the hole, with the water closer than 60 ft. from the pin. It sounded to me like Fowler was in good command of knowing how his ball striking was going that week. When considering his other goals mentioned, the lay up seems like a well thought out and very mature decision especially for a rookie.
  • Jack
    Surge, thank goodness you "get it" with what Rickie did in Phoenix. He had already decided that if he had five iron, he would go for it, and if four iron, he would lay up. He also noted that the up and down was tough from front left or front right. The eventual winner did go for it on 15 and nearly paid dearly. Mahan was short left and he did not get up and down. Talk about a stressful par! Rickie played it just right. The fact, that he did not hit the wedge shot to six feet shows the pressure he was feeling. His drives were suddenly flying right. Like you said, who knows what the player is feeling in those situations! The second place finish was huge for RF. Even though he may not have thought through the implications of the money, the Fed Ex, the Reshuffle, he is a guy who watches stats and plays the odds. He stated that his primary objective going into the West Coast Swing was a good position in the reshuffle. I would say first is a good positive. Go DJ and go Rickie!
  • Greg
    Rickie and Chip's decisions were different. If Chip goes for the green and comes up short, he is in the water. If Rickie comes up short, there was plenty of fairway in front of the green to land on, just like his playing partners. If he hits it into one of the traps, that is a pretty good place to make birdie from.

    I hope that Rickie learns from his mistake.

    His fellow pros were surprised by his decision, which tells me something.
  • Stretch C
    The pin placement was brutal. Front right has no room for error to the right unless the sand catches the ball. The lie a slight upslope which can cause an off line shot to go farther off line than from a level lie. Trying to hit a lower shot can cause moving ahead a bit and that is water. the bail out area was short left and that brings in water close on three sides. The play was the lay up but it was done into the right rough which made the third shot almost impossible to get close with the slope of the green angling sharply to the left. Fowler's third shot was the prudent leave for a possible flyer out of the rough.

    The only mistake with this layup was it was safe from the water, but needed to be closer to the water and possible in the fairway in order to control the spin to the table sized area.

    Having had the same shot in a tournament gives one a better idea of what the play was about and what penalties were probable if the aggressive play was chosen.
  • Amos Terrell
    to SURGE:

    I agree 100%. Fowler was playing ot his strength -- it jsut did not work in this case -- but next time? The odds would favor him laying up again in that situation. He would probaly get the birdie 3 out of 5 or maybe 4 out of 5 considering his short game stats.

    The closest I personally have to that situation is the par 5 18th at my favorite course. It has a "sunken waterway" near the green(similar to the "burn" at St Andrews). With my norma drive, it is no problem -- my best 3 wood is about 10 yards short of the ditch, leaving a 6 or 7 iron to the green, depending on pin placement.

    However, If I hit an unusally long drive, then the temptation to "go for it" MAY arise. However, the ditch is now in the CARRY distance of my usual fairway wood shot - and if I barely clear the ditch, I still have a wedge to the green.

    So I generally lay up anyway - and sometimes hear some unpleasant things from my playing partners --- until the scores for the hole are compared.

    It is all albut "how many" not about "how". We do not get "style points" for hitting a 170 yard 7 iron -- specially when it is far easier to hit a 5 or 7 wood for that distance

    Bottom line -- each player must "know himself" and play to his strengths.

    Keep hitting them STRIAGHT and LONG

    Amos
  • One hundred per cent correct Surge...it is the PLAYER'S decision...no one elses. Especially writers that have never experienced the ups and downs of competition within any sport...this anin't a words per minute competition. Ones mind set after taking the risk and failing isn't going to be very good on the next tee. I realized this years ago while trying to break 70 for the first time. You just had to go for fourteen to get a birdie or eagle. What I realized is that no, you don't. Hit it into the water and chances of breaking 70 are over, let alone trying to hit two successfull shots on a good par four fifthteent. That to me is just as important; you do have to count them all and heading into the final four with a good mindset is more important. It happened soon thereafter.
  • dan magruder
    Surge,

    Ricky Fowler is the #1 player from 100 yds. out, plain/simple he went with the best odds.

    I watched Sam, Arnie's grandson today, go for it off the ground with driver.....a birdie would have

    him finish -2, and very respectable, and more money. But he did what Arnie would do.....he is

    not Arnie, Jack Nicklaus' comment: "he needs to find out who he is", is right on the money!

    It is all a learning experience, I believe as an amateur, I need to learn as I go, and that should

    produce positive results. Sam finished even par because of his choice today, I am betting next

    time he lays up too! Thanks for a great learning insitute, and best of luck to you and your son.
  • Robert Meade
    Though as a fan it is always cooler to see a pro go for and pull off a second shot into the green, like Beck, Fowler felt he had a better chance to wedge his third close and make e birdy. I
    feel he showed great
    maturity and wisdom beyond his 21 years. He'll win and soon, watch.
    I had a rare eagle at #18 at Primm just outside Las Vegas. Hit (for me) an unusually long drive (about 285) and had about 195. Hit with a 15 degree hybrid, Beauty! Came in high an just cleared 2 fronting traps and rolled left to right about 40 feet to 1 foot for tap in.
    Down the middle,
    Robert
    PS. This was 2 months ago with the PPGS from Surge
  • Consider that our financial crisis could have come from lots of people taking high risks with lots of money and coming up losers. There are a number of scientific studies on how taking risks triggers a release of dopamine in the brain - place "risk taking impact on the brain dopamine" in google. It may well be that risk taking in teens is also connected to brain development..

    My guess is that Phil Mickelson took more risks throughout his entire career, even before he knew he would be a success, than other golfers. And that he got a bigger kick out of his successes than than players whose noggins work differently.

    A tennis teacher/psychologist I know told me that different personality types (as measured on the Myers Briggs scale) even will have different physical limitations. Like an ENTP will have trouble naturally creating displacement between shoulder and hips. He pointed to ENPT Greg Norman's collapse as an example.

    Which says to me that ENTPs better be Surge students if they don't want to collapse under pressure.
  • John P
    Fowler had a perfect lie since they were playing lift, clean and place.

    He should have gone for it !!!!
  • Don Ortner
    Don,

    Spending the past three months suffering through winter has given me plenty of time to practice my PPGS backswing and downswing. However, there is one segment which I'm not completely sure. I fully understand the golf club up the tree to a perfectly vertical postion to minimize club weight and minimum gravitational force. My question is: do you bring the golf club straight down to maintain what you achieved in the backswing ? Can you elaborate on the very first part of the downswing ?
  • George Seely
    If anything, Ricky Fowler, should be commended for having enough maturity, at his age, to calculate the odds, and the possible cost. Most of these young Turks would have gotten a testosterone rush and tried to bomb the shot. A lot of careers have ended up at the bottom of a water hole, By using his head, Ricky will be around a long time
  • Craig63
    These guys, Tim, Michael and Ricky, played it smart by not gambling on a risky shot because they knew that the price of failure would be hugely costly to them at this particular point in their careers.

    It certainly wouldn't be as costly to Tiger or Phil, as Surge suggested, if they failed to make the shot so it would be surprising indeed if these guys didn't go for it even if they were not trying to play catch up and had a lead to protect.

    Regards, Craig
  • Dale Hixson
    No Steve my point was that by making smart decisions and not being Macho he put himself in a better position for later.
  • That was a good explanation but at the end you reversed your whole intent buy backing down and giving the golfer the benefit of the doubt. Certainly it is a gentleman's finish to the issue. However, it disproves the point of your whole conversation.
  • Dale Hixson
    You hit it on the head Surge!!! In all areas of sports I am continually hearing some "Holier than thou" announcer or writer tell the world how stupid someone was for not Going for the gusto or making the hard charge for the poll or putting all on the line. Well.........If you were out there doing it for a living and had the sme circumstances happening to you, maybe you would do it the same way, maybe not. But second guessing the guy who IS doing it is just plain arrogant. OLD SAYING......"Those who say something can not or should not be done should not interrupt the guy actually dealing with it." GO Ricky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I look forward to watching you win for many years.
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